The 2022 Oscars: Is This The Year The Streams Prevail?
The 94th Annual Academy Awards are set for this upcoming Sunday, March 27. Hollywood’s biggest night, after yet another tumultuous year for the motion picture industry, is hoping that movie lovers will tune in and celebrate along with the A-list stars in attendance. But the biggest irony of all could be that this year’s Best Picture winner could well be a film that many have heard of, but few have yet to see.
Before getting into the actual nominees, let’s step back and discuss the television show itself, which is, once again the subject of controversy before the live cameras start rolling.
The Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences (The Academy for short) along with this year’s show’s producers are facing increasing pressure to shore up sagging ratings from previous years, especially from its network partner ABC. The result is that the Academy decided to have several awards presented prior to showtime. These included the three shorts categories (Documentary, Live Action, Animation) along with Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Sound, and Original Score. The winners of those awards will still have their acceptance speeches shown during the live broadcast.
Yet many in The Academy, especially those in the craft branches affected by the change, have howled in public protest, but to no avail, barring a last-minute reversal.
The producers hope, with this change, along with other planned musical and comedy performances, that it will somehow make the overall show less boring and attract more viewers. Will it? Perhaps? Yet the likelihood that most general audiences will tune into the show in the first place to see films feted that they haven’t seen, or even heard about frankly, is probably slim. Especially with the Academy voting membership in recent years choosing to nominate more “arthouse” and international films over mainstream fare.
And what about this year’s nominees?
Netflix is once again hoping to finally strike Oscar gold for Best Picture, but is this the year another streaming service beats them to the punch? For a long time, Netflix looked finally certain to claim Best Picture with its critically acclaimed release, “The Power of the Dog.”
Director Jane Campion, who appears a certain lock to win Best Directing, literally directed the hell out of the minimalist, revisionist Western drama set in early 20th Century Montana based on the book by Thomas Savage. With a total of 12 Oscar nominations, including four for acting, “Dog” appeared to be on track to, if not sweep the ceremony, then at least bring in the lion’s share of overall wins. (Another Best Picture nominee “Dune” might have something to say about that as it's favored in many of the same craft or technical categories as “Dog”.)
The problem is — the film is still a tough sell. While the film earned extensive critical acclaim, many viewers find it a slow burn that literally concludes with a surprise if not albeit satisfying ending. “Dog” has won many best picture awards at other events including the BAFTAS and the Critics’ Choice Awards but its certainty as the Best Picture Oscar winner is now up in the air.
With recent events, like the still ongoing pandemic, and the current Ukraine conflict, it’s not a surprise that most moviegoers, and Academy voters are likely leaning to voting for more “feel good” or crowd pleasing films also nominated for Best Picture.
Way back in August of last year, “Belfast” from director and writer Kenneth Branagh seemed to fit the bill. His somewhat autobiographical telling of life growing up during the turbulent “troubles” of late 1960’s Northern Ireland drew generally positive reviews and seemed to be the type of audience pleaser that most Academy members could get behind. Yet, the film hasn’t earned the kind of awards momentum that suggests it could win Best Picture, though it still might.
The same could be said for “King Richard”, the true-life story of how Richard Williams coached his young daughters Venus and Serena Williams to global sports superstardom. While Will Smith is expected to win Best Actor for his portrayal of the tennis maverick, “King Richard” suffered from premiering last fall in theaters when so many moviegoers still stayed away from theaters, thus never building into a true box office hit.
And then there’s director Steven Spielberg’s reimagining of the classic musical “West Side Story.” The original musical won a total of 10 Oscars in 1961, including Best Picture. While the new version drew overall good reviews, movie audiences were lukewarm in both response and tickets. Older audiences stayed away since they felt that having seen the original, they didn’t need to see a remake. Younger audiences probably couldn’t relate to the core story set in the 1960s despite a stellar cast that includes breakout star Ariana Debose, nominated for Best Supporting Actress, and Rita Moreno who won the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress in the original.
Which is what makes “CODA” — such a surprising if not totally unexpected frontrunner for Best Picture now.
“CODA” tells the story of a hearing teenage daughter of deaf parents who longs to break free of her small town and pursue music at college. The film first gained headlines way back in January of 2021 when Apple purchased the film at the Sundance Film Festival for a whopping $25 million dollars.
Apple’s goal was simple — the computer giant needed a marquee title to help launch its new Apple TV+ streaming service. While the film earned positive reviews, many audiences didn’t immediately watch the film when it debuted last August on Apple TV+, mainly because the streaming service itself was brand new.
“CODA” started building momentum during the awards season this Spring, winning “Best Ensemble” at the Screen Actors Guild awards and recently Best Picture at the Producers Guild Awards. “CODA” earlier in February earned three Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. And it’s been after the Oscar nominations themselves that it appears most audiences, including Academy members, have finally seen the film and fully embraced it, pushing it forward as a popular and potential Best Picture winner.
The irony behind the newfound popularity for “CODA”, especially ahead of Oscar night, is that one) most general audiences unless they are Apple TV+ subscribers have not seen the film, since the film really didn’t have any kind of broad theatrical release and two) with some Academy members still harboring a “never Netflix” mentality when it comes to giving that streaming service a Best Picture win (in this case for “Dog”) would be ok, it seems, instead to give it to Apple with its streaming service. (Strange logic, considering Netflix basically employs so many now in the industry).
So what will win Best Picture?
Ultimately, the Academy, as a collective likes to say something when it chooses a film for Best Picture. “The Power of the Dog” certainly has the gravitas and technical mastery of a film destined to be studied and admired for years to come. But with this year’s show theme literally being “Movie Lovers Unite” it’s very likely a heartwarming story of a family coming together, is what will end up with the biggest prize on Oscars night. Even if the biggest irony of all is the fact that the majority of Academy voters unite around a film still only available on a streaming service, and not a local movie theatre.
As they say, that’s show business, kid.